Global climate change is impacting Earth’s oceans in a number of ways, from higher water temperatures and rising sea levels to acidification and oxygen depletion
Where is it all coming from? Significant quantities of ocean plastic pollution can be traced to waste mismanagement in coastal nations.
"Results indicate that risk analysis neglecting the changes in wave power and having sea level rise as the only driver may underestimate the consequences of climate change and result in insufficient or maladaptation,”
There is a credible path to significantly reduce plastic leakage to the ocean but only if all solutions are implemented concurrently, ambitiously, and starting immediately
There is no single solution to end ocean plastic pollution. Upstream and downstream solutions should be deployed together
To date, much of the debate has focused on either “upstream” (pre-consumer, such as material redesign, plastic reduction, and substitution) or “downstream” solutions (postconsumer, such as recycling and disposal).
Analysis shows that this is a false dichotomy. Upstream solutions that aim to reduce or substitute plastic use are critical and should be prioritized but will need to be scaled carefully to limit adverse social or environmental effects.
Downstream solutions are also essential but limited by economic viability and the realistic speed of infrastructure development in the face of growing plastic waste production.
Moreover, given the potential negative impacts on human health and the environment of some downstream disposal technologies, their use should be weighed against different trade-offs and carefully controlled. Modelled on their own, no “single solution” strategies reduce annual leakage of plastic to the ocean even below 2016 levels by 2040. An ambitious recycling strategy, for example, with ambitious scale-up of collection, sorting, and recycling infrastructure coupled with design for recycling, reduces 2040 leakage by 38 per cent (±7 per cent) relative to BAU, which is 65 per cent (±15 per cent) above 2016 levels.
Similarly, an ambitious reduction and substitution strategy, without massive expansion of downstream infrastructure, reduces 2040 leakage by 52 per cent (±9 per cent) relative to BAU, 28 per cent (±5 per cent) above 2016 levels. An integrated approach with new ways to deliver the benefits of today’s plastic is needed to significantly reduce ocean plastic pollution.